How dry is too dry?
“There is nothing wrong with change, as long as it’s in the right direction.” Sir Winston Churchill wasn’t talking about weather, but it’s rather apt considering the recent climate extremities experienced across the UK.
These past six weeks have brought severe but favorable conditions for the arable harvest to progress at an efficient pace. With added relief of little to no concern for high moisture content, avoiding the extra management of wet grain logistics, drying cost or claims. But can grain be too dry? For the first time in my career, I have repeatedly been asked “What’s the minimum requirement for moisture on contract?”. Oilseed rape has a clear minimum specification of 6.0% as laid out in FOSFA trading terms, but on cereal grains, contractually there is no minimum.
There is, however, a loss of weight therefore yield to consider. When moisture meters started testing wheat nearing 10.0%, below or even ‘off the scale’ many were faced with a new conundrum. How dry is too dry? Harry James, ProCam UK Ltd Agronomist based in Herefordshire helped his clients decide when to go or stop combining based on moisture content (or lack thereof) by doing the math.
Source: Harry James at ProCam UK Ltd
Harry’s workings show that at 10.0% moisture over half a tonne a hectare could be lost in yield. A staggering amount, which is why many chose to stop combing during the heat of the day. Only going at night, in an attempt to capture maximum moisture and reduce grain temperature in store.
As focus turns to the start of a new crop cycle, soil moisture is on farmers’ most wanted list. Two heatwaves, record breaking temperatures and a significant below average July rainfall has effectively baked the soil. To the point where heavy rainfall would be like power washing concrete.
This week saw a drastic change in weather events from heatwave to flash flooding for much of the Midlands, South-East and Eastern counties. On Tuesday, Market Rasen in Lincolnshire reported 130mm of rainfall from a torrential downpour in just a few hours, leaving residents stranded in homes and cars floating down streets. Further North of the county, however, received a welcomed 47mm and 24hrs later oilseed rape was being drilled into ideal soil conditions, quickly followed by the rolls.
The speed of change in weather is beginning to match the extremeness of market volatility. Just as farmers are accustomed to operating at the mercy of weather, we need to be equally as dynamic and reactive to grain market opportunities.